Sunday, August 31, 2008

I Love This Game!

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Played some more. Was just treading water, when I played this monstrosity. Don't even know what to think about it, except when the action goes like this I tend to be drawing just about this dead.



I was buzzing, and started to shut down tables. Then, in the next few minutes, these two hands happened.



I was sick when he called, of course, and dumbfounded when they pushed me the pot.

Then, finally, this:


99 lol. Also, the replay's not working, but the short stack had 67o w00t.

THEN I shut down the rest of my tables and ran for it. Good month. :D
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End O' The Month

cat

Family out of town today, and I took the opportunity to play against the big Sunday crowd and finish the month strong. Had a great day, then flopped set under set, stacked off, felt the tilt buzz, and logged off (victory!).

Probable final numbers for the month (assuming I'm done for the day):
Total hands: 21324
ptbb/100: 3.4

But... I'm putting a big asterix on this result. Maybe I'm just rationalizing, but here goes. At the end of last month I had that nasty downturn, and I switched to .1/.25. Results remained bad into August. And I just couldn't win at .1/.25. On 8/24 I realized I needed to play .25/.5 if I wanted gold, and...I wanted gold, so I switched over to 50nl exclusively. Since then I've done great, winning 7.5ptbb/100. So, breaking it down for stakes...

25nl: 9362 hands, -.15bptbb/100
50nl: 11962 hands, 6.15ptbb/100

So, kinda, sorta, I met my goal of 5bb/100.

I met my goal of 20k hands. I met my goal of signing up for a training site. I haven't done any coaching, and me/bu/scottwire have shared hands only once. :(.

For next month:
[ ] 25k hands.
[ ] 6.5ptbb/100
[ ] Fold when beat. Specifically, when c/r'd by a nit with less than two pair.
[ ] Regulate DC viewing. Specifically, I'd like to watch after peak hours, at least 2 hours/week, at the computer. Been using the ipod, but it's more scattered, b/c I'll be all over the house. Also, on the ipod it's impossible to read hole cards.

In the end, I'd like to ramp up my play volume. Just crunching some #s, I figured I'm getting 321 hands an hour at 50nl, with mostly 4 tables but sometimes 5 and very occasionally 6 when transitioning. At that rate, I'll need to up my play from 15 hours/week to 20 hours/week to hit 25k hands this month. That seems really reasonable to me. And if my month goes as planned, I'll be a couple of weeks away from having 50 buyins to 100nl.

Stay tuned.
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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Ick, Bad Day

Flopped a boat and guy rivered a bigger boat. Stacked off with tptk v a flop min check/raise (like duh). I turned a set against a turned straight. This and much much more. The good news, I think, is that even with those three hands, and one brain fart donk off of a bluff, I still finished only 1.5 buyins down in 900 hands.

And then there was this:


mmmm...it warms my heart looking at it.

Oh well. Didn't mind booking the loss, but I was a bit tilted and I wasn't at all happy about that.

Here's the set v straight hand. It's so gross, b/c it's one of two cards to which
I even put in one more chip.


Also, an update on yesterday, and my point about chumps refusing to bet their hands. yay for losing the minimum here.

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Monday, August 25, 2008

Getting More Value


I've been watching all sorts of stuff at DC, but one of only two series I've been watching in its entirety is Real Life Micro NL-Grinder: Unlimited Texas Hold Them, which is basically comprised of Wilt on Tilt doing sweat sessions and HH reviews with his student, a 50nl grinder. They've been great, and one of the concepts that's really basic that I've been working on is getting more value out of medium strength hands against calling stations. In the past I would check behind on the turn for deception or to keep from stacking off or whatever, but really I was just not getting value. And Wilt argues that, basically, you should keep betting until your straightforward opponent indicates that the situation has changed.

Amazingly (not really), it works. I mean, hands come up where goofballs slowplay AA and end up doubling through me, but much more often he's just calling down with something dumb b/c he doesn't believe me and he has tpbk or because he thinks he's slowplaying a worse hand.

In any case, this leads to situations where I'm just bet bet betting, even when semi-scare cards come later, and I'll have to occasionally bet fold assuming these guys aren't incredibly tricky. The fold part...I'm working on that.

The good news, and I've reported on this before at CT, is that a lot of the really bad players at these stakes can't bear the thought of losing a customer, and as a result will often play very slow and then make tiny value bets later in the hand when they flop a monster. The result is that I seem to be winning big pots and losing small ones.

Today: 900 hands. Hands in which I won 40+ bbs, 11. Hands in which I lost 40+ bbs, 3.

Had another great day (and hope to get in another session later during the CT Monday night tourny), +$289. w00t.


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Saturday, August 23, 2008

More on The Benefits of DC

Bought my subscription on 8/15, and since then have watched about 10 videos. I believe it's helped tremendously, and now I have some semi-anecdotal proof. Here's my chart since then. Notice the thin line is my allin EV (took a couple of aipf beats in this time). Even given the variance, though, I'm at 6ptbb/100 in this time, comfortably ahead of where I wanted to be for the month. Woo, I say.

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Friday, August 22, 2008

New Update on August Goals and First Thoughts on September

[x] 20k hands.

As of now I have 14.5k, not including tournaments blah blah blah. I've played 18 days of 6max, at 800 hands per day. I only need to average 611 hands per day to hit the number.

[?] 5ptbb/100

I'm at 4.25 for my last 7k hands, and moving up. For the month only 1.5 :(, but I could conceivably get there.

Now, September. What I think, for now.

[ ] 25k hands. Average 1k over approximately 25 days of play.
[ ] Bump my earn up by one ptbb/100. Realistically I hope to finish around 2.5 this month, so shoot for 3.5 next. This would earn me $875 and put me within sniffing distance of being realistically rolled for .5/1. Read more!

As Promised, Some Non-Bad-Beat Hands

Holdem manager has a nice mark hand feature which allows hands to be marked for viewing later. Yesterday I played 2k+ hands and couldn't find anything interesting when I did a cursory view. It's easy to find big pots, but ones that were medium sized that seemed interesting in the moment are harder to locate. So here are some I marked recently.

In this hand I raise to isolate the fish on the button, adn get called by the other fish in the bb. He plays 67/8/4 in a small sample. On the flop and turn he makes baby bets, and I assume as a rule that from a bad player that means he has bottom or middle pair. If the board hadn't paired 6s on the river I'd have likely value bet. I wonder whether I'm a sucker for not betting the turn, in fact.


I feel like this one is a typical spew. In the bb the player is 63/13/1. She calls on the flop and I guess she has a queen. I was wrong and she was stronger...but still with those numbers I don't know why I should assume she'll even lay down a queen. Dumb river bet imo.



Finally this one, which I'm kinda proud of. Folds to me on the button. The blinds are both under 20%vpip in 150+ samples, and both fold BB 80% of the time. The table is tight and I'm bored so I go for the steal. The BB 3bets and yuck, b/c I have 24, you may notice. But I look a bit deeper and see that he's 3bet out of the blind a whopping 16% of the time. Not that I needed stove to tell me, but when I look now, I see that includes such hands as KTo, QJo, Q9s, A5s, 66. I think most of the time he has a relativelyl junky hand, and I know that Holdem manager has informed me that I 4bet too infrequently. So...


w00t.
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Thursday, August 21, 2008

Upward Trends and Optimistic Thoughts


When things turned bad at the end of July, I lost 7 out of 8 days, for a total loss of $782 :X. After that, since 8/8, I've won 7/12 days (not spectacular, but not horrible), for a win of $307, woo! In the second stretch I played at 22/17/3, compared to 24/18/2.75 during the losing stretch. Hrm...maybe that's not all that different. But my vpip is down some, my vpip/pfr is up some, and my agg and 3betting is up some(6 to 6.8), and let's pretend that makes a diff.

More generally, I've been watching the videos and if nothing else getting my head right. I'm picking my spots a little better, reading hands a bit better, and I've tempered my agg in situations where it looks like my fold equity is minimal and I face aggression. Shit looking for hands. I'm gonna get better at marking hands for posting. Starting...now.

I took some nasty beats today, but now I'll post some happy hands.

In this first, I got my stack back from a donkey that got it in with tpnk v my Aces and rivered trips. mmmm...so sweet.


In the next I turn set over set, which proves there is a God. Nice slowplay, sir.


In this hand, I feel like I got an extra $10 or so with a river check-raise.


In this hand...yeah I cold decked him. And it was fun.


One final note...I think I'm gonna make 20k hands rather easily, in my dreams I come close to the 5ptbb/100 goal I set for the month. I'm at 13k hands and 0 ptbb/100 for now.

Also, I figured out that if I play ONLY 50nl for the remainder of the month I can squeak out gold status again. So...I'm going for it. I'm actually at .75/100 for 50nl, so I don't think this is a stretch or much of a risk.

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Too Much Crying?


I really don't want the blog to be a series of posts where I bitch about how I run, but the fact is I've had bad results. Of course I'm working on it, and don't intend to slow down. Since my mid August update I've picked up the pace and have a decent shot to get in 20k hands this month. And, in reality...I'm at worst break-even over the 5 weeks I've been playing a lot. I feel like Deuces Cracked and Holdem Manager were good investments, and in all I'd say things are looking up.

Point: I may be a bit of a drama-bomb when I bitch here. I realize that, will try to stop the impulse to post when things are bad, and work on putting up more hands that are interesting in ways that don't include bad beats. Read more!

How does one lose 6 buyins in 553 hands?

How? Sit right back and you'll hear a tale a tale of a fateful trip...

kk < AA aipf one buyin
aks < AA aipf v same villain 5 minutes later one buyin
top pair v flopped set v maniac one buyin
tptk v flopped set same maniac 4 minutes later one buyin (4 so far!!!)
AA v flopped quads, slowrolls me on river wooo!
99 < 88 aipf v maniac that stacked me twice already with sets above.

that's 6 buyins. the rest of my 548 i ran a little better than even. yay for that!

for the month now, 11k hands, -$182.

also, i switched over to holdem manager, and it kicks PT3's ass.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008

Another 3/5 Session at Muck

First off, I learned last night that getting to the card room at 7:30pm on a Friday night is in no way "getting in before the rush." I was so proud about leaving home at 7 to get there early...suffice to say that valet was full (a rarity) and I was 37th on the list for 3/5.

Not so bad, except for the fact that this meant I'd have to not get tilted while I waited. The choices of things to do while you wait on a 37 man list are sorta limited, and all include tilt-inducers. I could play blackjack (tilt factor 5, also way too many $5 bets per hour), I could play craps (tilt factor 1, boredom factor 8.56), I could sit at the bar (tilt factor 7.4). In the end I played limit, which provides a variety of tilt factors depending on what sort of cards I'm dealt. I'm happy mucking for an hour, but am easily thrown off balance by some of the stupidness.

Example: Old asian guy thinks it's his job to put on a kill pot, so any time he wins the kill button he raises the next hand hoping to put on a kill. He does this for the 3rd time this hour (last time ended up showing Q4s), there are two callers, and I call with 67 of spades in the BB. Flop 34T with two clubs. It checks around. Turn is a 5 to give me the nutsack, but (ominous chord), it's a second diamond. The button bets, I c/r, 2 players call 12 cold (nice), and the button calls.

Obviously a club would be a scarecard, as would the board pairing. But I don't think I can get too excited about runner runner, right? (ominous chords repeat). River comes K of diamonds, I check call and he shows some junky flush. It doesn't bother me that he limped with T8 sooted. It doesn't bother me that he got there and got an extra bet on the river. But...he did call two cold on the turn, and for some reason I can't abide that shit.

That said, I play good. I buy in for $200 and at 10:20 or so am called for my seat and rack up $325

Again, the 3/5 game is sweet. There's drunk Fort Lewis soldier that puts in a dead straddle on my first hand, then moves in when it's raised to $50. Everyone folds. He moves in at least one other time in the first round, and he's buying drinks for anyone that would like one. No one else is raising, for the most part. 3bets are nearly non-existent, and so are usually minimum (b/c why would you want to lose customers when you 3bet 2%?).

The first hand I play: in the cutoff, one limper to me. I raise A9s to $25 and am called by drunk soldier and the limper. Flop comes 886 two tone but not my suit. EP limper makes it $30 into $80, I'd very much like to raise and would almost always do so online, but don't know whether he'd fold 22 here, so I go away. Soldier calls. Check/check on the turn (ten of blank). The river is an offsuit Queen, soldier check/calls $50 and EP shows 66 for the win.

Next hand I play, it folds to the button who raises to $20. I make it $65 from the sb with AA and everyone folds.

At least three other times that I can remember I raise limpers with strong hands and meet no resistance (AQ, AQ, AK).

Then, 3 limpers, I make it $35 in the sb with JJ. A different EP limper calls. No read, very quiet asian man. Flop comes k34 rainbow. He has a bit less than $200., and as I'm wondering if I should bet he's stacking his chips up in a tower to move in. He could be trying to intimidate me, but it doesn't matter b/c I'm way ahead or way behind. If he has the king he'll move in, and if he doesn't he'll fold, but the turn card almost certainly won't make a difference. So I check and he quickly check behind.

The turn is a blank, and now I figure I'll just take it down. I bet $40 and he quickly moves in. I felt a little steamy that he extracted a bet out of me and fold for the extra $145.

My last hand, so I could make it back by 1 to feed the baby: UTG I make it $20 with AQ (offsuit red) and get 4 callers. Flop AJ9 with two spades and I'm smelling disaster brewing. I bet $60 and thank jebus when everyone folds.

I still think it'd be hard to lose money at this game if I played it every day, but I can't play it every day and don't have the roll to lose even two buyins. I'll prolly still take some shots at it, but must be wary, for I do like poker and would have a hard time getting going again if I did something stupid.
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Friday, August 15, 2008

August Goals Update (Update)

I decided to stop being a nit and buy 6 months of Deuces Cracked. I'm in, have downloaded my first video, and plan to watch minimum 3 hours a week to start shoring up the game. We'll see how all that goes. Read more!

Mid-August Update and More on Aggression

On August third scottwire made his post about aggression which really got me thinking about whether my low aggression was the key to turning it around. It's been 12 days, and I think that the results look fairly decisive in some ways, and not so much in others.

Here's 7/14-8/2:


Amongst other things, we'll notice that my winning streak was despite losing money without showdown consistently. And although I ended tiny winner for that 15k hands, I lost $700 without showdown.

My numbers during that time were 23/16/2.25

Now, 8/3 - 8/15:
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QuickPost

Now, I'm a net winner without showdown. Unfortunately, I appear to be showing down quite a bit worse than before. Nevertheless, still a net tiny winner.

Numbers: 24/19/2.85

Aggression up over 25%, a bit looser than before, which I think needs to be corrected, and a higher % of pots that I open for a raise.

In addition, on the aggro front, I've increased my 3bet preflop % from 5% to 9% in the latter period, and my att to steal % has gone from 30 --> 35.

August goals
[ ] On track for 20k hands
(only 6k. as predicted, i didn't play for 5 days while my bro was in town. still think 15k is very reasonable).
[ ] 5ptbb/100.
(um...no. still working on that)
[x] Get/do coaching
(still swapping hands with littlebu and scottwire)
[x] Consider cardrunners
(yeah, i considered it. it looks like people like deuces cracked better, and i'm still considering it, and working on setting it up. i'm even more motivated now that i'm not killing it the way i thought i was briefly).
[ ] 2+2?
(haven't really spent much time there. maybe i'll hit up littlebu for some direction, b/c i know he's been using the microstakes forum for help).

I haven't quit, although I'm not pumping out hours with a frenzy like last month. For now I'm just trying to stay even-keeled and keep rolled so I don't need to move down :(.


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Friday, August 8, 2008

Haven't Been Around Much, and A Milestone

My brother was in town Monday til today, and haven't played a hand. Also, I'm still losing. For example, there's this hand. The guy had been sitting there for an hour, and I was fairly sure by the check/minraise I'd be able to get allin. The 7bet was kinda silly, whatever. But this is the sort of hand that I feel has been plaguing me.


So today was my first day back, lost 2 buyins in 500 hands and quit after the above hand.

Coincidentally, that hand hit a milestone for me! It put me in the red for the first time since I started the blog. Total #s: 18k hands, -$18.

woooooooooo!!!
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Monday, August 4, 2008

Good News Bad News


Bad news: I still can't win. In fact, look at my chart since i started at .25/.50 and you'll see my win has turned into something...statistically insignificant. Good news, is that I think maybe I've made a good change. After reading Scott's blog entry about aggressiveness, I decided he was right, as my money won without showdown had been on an ever-downward line since about hand 4k. So here's my chart for Saturday/Sunday/this morning, with money won without showdown in red.
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The fact that it's above zero...that's a good thing. If we look at my 3 weeks of play, you can see I've lost a significant amount without showdown. That means I'm not stealing enough, not playing my draws aggressively enough, and I'm helping build pots and then laying down too often.
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So, eh, I dunno. Carry on? This afternoon I'll do the HH's for bu and scott and see what they had to say about me. I'm excited for the week, but also have guests in town Tues/Wed/Thurs/Fri and am skeptical about getting my hands in.

But...that might mean I have another live play post next weekend. Hoorah.
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Friday, August 1, 2008

Lost Again Today: Moving Down

Yeah. Another three buyins down, and now I'm right about 1.5ptbb/100 over 16k hands. I'm still super-rolled for .1/.25, but I'm moving down anyhow. If I'm not sure I can win at .25/.50 (and I'm not), then why play there? I played 6 or 7 hundred hands at .25nl today and lost there too (LDO), but it does look softer and maybe I can get something done this month.

Still shooting for 20-25k hands, still hope to hit that earn rate goal, and still doing HH swaps with bu and scottwire. Hopefully I'll have good news in a week or two.
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