I think this is a good lay down but, as a payoff wizard, it pains me.
The guy is 16/12/4 over 50 hands. Small sample, but the line he takes is strong like bull, no? I just can't see calling there and then folding to a massive river bet if it bricks out.
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Tuesday, September 2, 2008
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2 comments:
I have learned in situations like this that villain is just not bluffing and you are beat here, most likely by 2pair like A8 or a lucky A4. I would say very good laydown.
The Golden Rule: don't go broke with one pair.
Wait for better situations.
well I think A8 and A4 are pretty much never in his CC'ing range pf with those stats. However 88, TT are. ATs maybe. The real question is how does he play his draws, and how does he play his sets? Most players would c/r both sets and huge draws on the flop (combo straight flush draws), but some players wait until the turn to c/r sets. However few players will c/r the turn with a draw. So I think this is probably a good fold especially against a player this nitty.
Also I think its important to note that with position against villains that c-bet/two barrel too frequently I will often just call the flop with flush or straight draws and then bluff raise the turn. By doing that I get an extra barrel out of their weak hands, and my line looks much stronger and may gain more fold equity. Plus if called I set myself up for an easy river shove if I think they can fold their hand, or obviously for value if I hit. But that is really a play you can only make against some TAG regs and really only with position. I also do that with air some, but that is a discussion for another day...
A better question might be whether or not a turn bet is best, or waiting to call a single bet on a brick river/value betting the river is better. I think against this villain betting the turn is best because you can get value from AQ, AJ and draws, and it is unlikely he is going to c/r the turn with a naked flush or straight draw.
Also re speakeasy: the golden rule is not good advice imo. There are lots of spots where "going broke" with one pair (or less) may be the most correct (+EV) play. In fact I think if you are afraid to go broke with one pair in some spots then it is nearly impossible to have a good winrate in online 6max these days. And I'm not talking about crazy mouthbreating maniac LAGtards either. There are lots of spots where I'm willing to get it in with one pair (even on the flop) against decent regs 100bb deep should the situation warrant.
but I think I'm rambling at this point....
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